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December 23, 2004
Things for 2005
Some call them trends, others predictions, I call them things. So here is my take on the near future:
Thing #1: RSS
A paradigm shift is a-happening and I am very excited at (sort of) being on the middle of it. I've heard this in the context of Web2.0 or the Empowerment of the Individual but essentially this is about trusted information channels, client-side. Sounds simple? The technology is. Any good CMS will generate XML, it is only a small step to offer a feed in any RSS format.
It's still early days, but check out the boingboing stats (an innovators site in an early adopter market with early adopter readers) to get a flavour of things to come.
The packaging becomes both more transparent and more irrelevant. It's about the product.
Practically speaking: offer an RSS feed or die, it's that simple. Flash, Shockwave et al. get relegated to microsites or anything where an immersive environment is temporarily required.
RSS becomes more important as the transport medium for rich media; music, video, files etc.
Thing #2: Empowered individuals
I presume most blog readers do this: use an RSS aggregator to scan for content. Suddenly, it becomes possible to monitor literally hundreds of feeds - both commercial ("serious" journalism), ProAm ("big" blogs) or simply amateur (blogs). The individual selects his source himself, ie it becomes trusted, and generates, aggregates, prioritises and enriches information through various means.
Currently this is relegated to blogs mostly, but eventually CMS systems, desktop publishing and office software will include tools transparent enough for anyone to use. RSS-autofeed in Firefox is just the beginning.
Don't forget RSS-Channel like "personal publishing" which will replace email. Encryption and signatures? too complicated. A channel to Auntie Gertrude or to your bowling friends? Much better.
In the end, content providers will have to fight much harder to a) be fast b) be original and c) be genuine. Fall back and fall out of the game.
Further, this spells a huge opportunity for companies to harness their human capital. Companies with empowered individuals will fare better than their competitors. More and more of the "right" tools become available. Use them.
Thing #3: Farewell to the straightjacket
Probably better known as "social software", even though that is a very fuzzy description. I call them adaptive systems. del.icio.us and flickr are prime examples: a well-thought and simple core that totally adapts itself to the user(s). Add a tag yourself and surf, look and share with RSS.
Standard software, standard websites tend to be condescending: they offer you limited options. It is very much a usability issue: why should you spend any of your time to learn a tool?
For companies, it is a very simple calculation: maximum ROI. No investments in learning a new tool, no investments in expensive providers and consultants mean more available resources elsewhere.
Thing #4: tribes, not communities
This one is food for thought: the notion of tribes becomes ever stronger. Tribes have a much stronger emotional band than communities. It is also a different band: it's less about personal advantage and more about what is best for everybody and for the brand. Communities are formed by corporations, tribes simply emerge from the (digital) evolution.
In the context of anthropology, tribal mechanisms are worthwile studying. Companies should develop products, offerings and experiences that understand tribal mechanisms.
We should see more and more tribes emerging and take their place along existing ones, such as open source or football fans.
Thing #5: tech divergence, info convergence
"Removing the packaging" means that there will be less need for an immersive environment. In the end, it will be less about the carrier medium.
This might sound blasphemous, but from a hardware point of view we will see divergence: we will have ever more options for accessing information. From an information point of view, anytime and anywhere becomes paramount.
This also means good and bad news for the mobile sector: good, because it will increasingly gnaw away at the importance of fixed location hardware. Bad, because there maybe isn't a need for UMTS-justifying killer app. It's just about the information - and the tools to work with it.
Web agencies will need to widen their mobile portfolio whilst mobile specialists will need to look for premium services.
Thing #6: brands in the paradigm shift
There are two main issues: the first one has been mentioned above. If the entire brand experience moves to client-side (ie. RSS) then immersion becomes side-lined. There is less opportunity for manipulation.
Issue two: will this paradigm shift also translate to the physical world? Will customers start focussing on the product and setting aside all the packaging? Possibly, but unlikely, as not everyone is online.
I like the notion of tribes. But tribes will need continuity and few brands offer long-term continuity regardless of tech evolution.
Some brands, think FMCG, will find it increasingly difficult to prevail in a client-side online world. I think they are well suited to create short-term, intensive cross-medial experiences. But, they will need to invest more Dollars for the same return as other brands that have follower tribes.
Thing #7: farewell to the 30-second commercial
Advertising agencies are much too focussed on classic and ego-satisfying advertising. With people watching less television than ever before in favour of time spent on the internet, these agencies will have to start thinking of innovative ideas to reach customers.
Onliners, or people who have relevant information or entertainment available whenever they want, are opposed to TV timetable slavery.
Thing #8: German smartcards
I'll keep this one brief: by this time next year, most adult Germans will hold an electronic signature and micropayment-enabled smartcard in their wallets. A huge potential, but some complex business models. Want to tap into that? Contact me :)
To sum it up, these are exciting times. Although I have mentioned few or no specific applications above, these things are nonetheless the base of what is happening (innovative, US-biased or European for mobile) now already, that will become a mainstream tornado before soon, also here in Germany.
Players, clients and Web agencies alike should at least have these issues on their radar to cut out their opportunities or face becoming fast followers.
Happy 2005 :)
Posted by Irakli at December 23, 2004 09:04 PM
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